Get Red Pepper's email newsletter. Enter your email address to receive our latest articles, updates and news.
You’ve probably come across an argument recently that goes something like this: ‘Yeah, sure… but the real issue that no one’s talking about is population, isn’t it?’ You might have read it in the newspaper or online, seen it on television or heard it on the radio. Perhaps you heard it from some guy in the pub. The ‘last taboo’ of environmentalism, the one that nobody’s prepared to acknowledge, is, rather confusingly, everywhere. The idea that soon we will be too many, or that we already are, for the planet to sustain, has become common sense for many people today. The conversation certainly needs to be had, but we need to be asking far more penetrating questions than the rhetorical ‘Are we too many?’
The debate over whether the planet and its productive and regenerative capacities can cope with a growing human population has been raging for more than 200 years. There is little need to go over overpopulation arguments in detail, predicated on when, rather than if, the number of people will exceed the world’s limited carrying capacity. They are well known. Since Thomas Malthus’s infamous Essay on the Principle of Population was first published in 1798 – with its apocalyptic vision of a world collapsing into chaos, war and starvation – the ‘dismal parson’s’ theories have repeatedly returned to haunt society.
Fears about overpopulation and so-called ‘natural’ scarcity have been variously associated with colonial administration, anti-welfare and austerity reforms, social Darwinism, the eugenics movements and tight immigration controls. More recently they have informed many of the anti-poverty programmes of international aid and development agencies, anti-natal policies in India, China and black communities in the US. These currents have also been running through much of the western environmental and ecology movement since the 1970s. The post-cold war era saw the rise of neo Hobbesian environmental security theory, especially in the US, which proposed international security was under threat from overpopulation and resource scarcity in the third world, and purportedly explained persistent conflicts and related flows of ‘environmental’ refugees and migrants.
It’s easy to see why overpopulation is so controversial, and how politically expedient it has proved throughout history for brutal oppression, social control and perpetuating inequalities. Today the spectre of catastrophic climate change has given fresh impetus to those urging action on the ‘population problem’. The reasoning has moved on since Malthus’s time. While Malthus’s thesis openly attacked the ‘immorality’ of the poor and the threat they posed to a landed gentry in the age of the Enlightenment, contemporary analyses are often far more scientific in character.
Organisations such as the Optimum Population Trust (OPT) in the UK and the Worldwatch Institute in the US justify their positions by carefully constructed computer modelling systems. Aggregate numbers of people, defined by their average carbon or ecological ‘footprints’, are inserted into these complex models, and analysed as to their impacts on various ecological and planetary systems. The results are often terrifying: OPT estimates 5.1 billion people to be the planet’s maximum sustainable population and just three billion to be the ‘optimum’. OPT argues that population reduction in the UK must include stopping net immigration, which accounts for much of the country’s growing numbers, both directly and indirectly as migrant families tend have more children.
This view of overpopulation as the key driver of global warming is by no means restricted to such elite institutions. It has popular traction among both mainstream and grass-roots environmental groups. Using the same scientific justifications, they paint the same picture of natural scarcity and impending doom, caused by too many people. Most predictions see world population at nine billion by 2050. Some see it then evening out and declining, while others forecast further growth. Either way, nine billion is viewed as incompatible with a sustainable planet and likely to cause a severe population crash.
Many contemporary environmentalists and climate activists are deeply uncomfortable with this Malthusian heritage, however. George Monbiot, for instance, sees overpopulation as a red herring and calls for the curbing of fossil fuel extraction, economic growth and overconsumption. Similarly Fred Pearce, author of Peoplequake, argues that population is likely to level out and start declining around 2040 and is unlikely to rise above eight billion. Like Monbiot he focuses on the consumption habits of the living and economic expansion rather than overpopulation. Both point to how responsibility for carbon emissions is deeply unequal, both historically and in the present, and how justice demands that cuts reflect this.
Playing the numbers game has its limitations, though. Focusing on consumption fails to dispel the central Malthusian belief that the source of environmental degradation is human excess, rather than socially mediated and concrete forms of production. At a recent conference held in Manchester, entitled ‘Financialisation and the Environment’, Larry Lohmann gave an illuminating presentation on the ‘commodification of carbon’. He explained how, for the purposes of carbon trading, carbon has had to become fetishised as a commodity. Drawing on Marx he suggested the series of abstractions needed to turn carbon to commodity purge it of all social, cultural, historical, geographical and technological context in which it is produced. In essence you cannot tell whether a tonne of carbon on the market comes from heating an elderly person’s home or a plane dropping bombs on Afghanistan.
People have not been commodified and put on the market in the same way (though OPT recently launched its bold ‘PopOffsets’ initiative, where people and organisations can ‘offset’ their carbon footprints in the most ‘cost-effective way’ by funding family planning programmes. You can apparently offset your own emissions by 150 per cent by helping people in India and Kenya not to breed!) But the idea of fetishism and abstraction holds true when dealing with the statistics churned out by the population control lobby.
Analysing people as mere numbers creates a problem for progressives. Individuals and communities are eliminated as social beings, capable of creative social change, and even as people of value in themselves. Instead, they are predetermined as competitive and threatening ‘footprints’ in need of some kind of control, unable to see the bigger picture, whose relationship with nature can only be destructive. The most problematic logically become those least in control, those who reproduce most – invariably the poorest in the global South.
Why is population growth so high in these parts of the world? The reasons are many, but most prominent are severe poverty and inequality coupled with lack of welfare and healthcare provision, patriarchal religions and cultures where boys are valued higher than girls, and where large families define social status. Access to education and family planning, while crucial, can only scratch the surface of these issues. Women’s reproductive rights, moreover, should be seen as inalienable and not some instrument for environmental management. Feminists, often the most vociferous opponents of overpopulation theories, ask why women’s fertility is so often targeted over men’s, suspicious that something deeply conservative and sexist lies beneath such claims.
At the same conference in Manchester I was told by the director of a Brazilian NGO working on modern-day slavery in rural Brazil – particularly acute in the growing biofuel industry – that the majority of the MST (landless workers’ movement) still doesn’t believe in climate change, and sees it as a western construct designed to further underdevelop the south. The view is becoming less common, which is of course positive, but it’s also instructive. Poor rural Brazilians live with scarcity every day, and it isn’t some natural phenomenon, it’s because agribusiness owns most of the land.
Of course none of this solves the very real environmental crisis we face. The matter is urgent, but progressives should be careful not to succumb to the fear-inducing rhetoric of the Malthusian apocalypse and the deeply political solutions that emerge from it. Instead, we need to put equity and justice at the heart of solutions to climate change. When faced with the question ‘Are we too many?’ the first thing we should be doing is asking why that particular question is being posed to us, and how and by whom any answer is likely to be used.
Louis Mendee explains the real human costs of climate change for the global south.
From climate change to automation to demographic shifts, Mathew Lawrence explains the challenges our economy will face in the coming decade.
Fifty years after the Abortion Act, women are still dying from being denied basic services, write activists from Feminist Fightback
We need to tackle the patronising ideology that lets Tory think-tanks sneer at social tenants, writes Emma Dent Coad
Acid Corbynism allows people to imagine a future beyond the paltry offerings of capitalism, writes Keir Milburn
'We wanted to use a shared love of the beautiful game to stand in solidarity with those living under occupation', writes Kate Hadley.
Priti Patel's shady deals are business as usual. Enough is enough, writes Eleanor Penny
Boris Johnson is a local disaster and a national embarrassment. He must go, writes James Clouting
The global elite have been stealing from society on an unprecedented scale, writes Tom Walker
Richard Murphy says that the appropriate political will and understanding of tax can put an end to offshore avoidance and evasion
Labour Party laws are being used to quash dissent
Richard Kuper writes that Labour's authorities are more concerned with suppressing pro-Palestine activism than with actually tackling antisemitism
Catalan independence is not just ‘nationalism’ – it’s a rebellion against nationalism
Ignasi Bernat and David Whyte argue that Catalonia's independence movement is driven by solidarity – and resistance to far-right Spanish nationalists
Tabloids do not represent the working class
The tabloid press claims to be an authentic voice of the working class - but it's run by and for the elites, writes Matt Thompson
As London City Airport turns 30, let’s imagine a world without it
London City Airport has faced resistance for its entire lifetime, writes Ali Tamlit – and some day soon we will win
The first world war sowed the seeds of the Russian revolution
An excerpt from 'October', China Mieville's book revisiting the story of the Russian Revolution
Academies run ‘on the basis of fear’
Wakefield City Academies Trust (WCAT) was described in a damning report as an organisation run 'on the basis of fear'. Jon Trickett MP examines an education system in crisis.
‘There is no turning back to a time when there wasn’t migration to Britain’
David Renton reviews the Migration Museum's latest exhibition
#MeToo is necessary – but I’m sick of having to prove my humanity
Women are expected to reveal personal trauma to be taken seriously, writes Eleanor Penny
Meet the digital feminists
We're building new online tools to create a new feminist community and tackle sexism wherever we find it, writes Franziska Grobke
The Marikana women’s fight for justice, five years on
Marienna Pope-Weidemann meets Sikhala Sonke, a grassroots social justice group led by the women of Marikana
Forget ‘Columbus Day’ – this is the Day of Indigenous Resistance
By Leyli Horna, Marcela Terán and Sebastián Ordonez for Wretched of the Earth
Uber and the corporate capture of e-petitions
Steve Andrews looks at a profit-making petition platform's questionable relationship with the cab company
You might be a centrist if…
What does 'centrist' mean? Tom Walker identifies the key markers to help you spot centrism in the wild
Black Journalism Fund Open Editorial Meeting in Leeds
Friday 13th October, 5pm to 7pm, meeting inside the Laidlaw Library, Leeds University
This leadership contest can transform Scottish Labour
Martyn Cook argues that with a new left-wing leader the Scottish Labour Party can make a comeback
Review: No Is Not Enough
Samir Dathi reviews No Is Not Enough: Defeating the New Shock Politics, by Naomi Klein
Building Corbyn’s Labour from the ground up: How ‘the left’ won in Hackney South
Heather Mendick has gone from phone-banker at Corbyn for Leader to Hackney Momentum organiser to secretary of her local party. Here, she shares her top tips on transforming Labour from the bottom up
Five things to know about the independence movement in Catalonia
James O'Nions looks at the underlying dynamics of the Catalan independence movement
‘This building will be a library!’ From referendum to general strike in Catalonia
Ignasi Bernat and David Whyte report from the Catalan general strike, as the movements prepare to build a new republic
Chlorine chickens are just the start: Liam Fox’s Brexit trade free-for-all
A hard-right free marketer is now in charge of our trade policy. We urgently need to develop an alternative vision, writes Nick Dearden
There is no ‘cult of Corbyn’ – this is a movement preparing for power
The pundits still don’t understand that Labour’s new energy is about ‘we’ not ‘me’, writes Hilary Wainwright
Debt relief for the hurricane-hit islands is the least we should do
As the devastation from recent hurricanes in the Caribbean becomes clearer, the calls for debt relief for affected countries grow stronger, writes Tim Jones
‘Your credit score is not sufficient to enter this location’: the risks of the ‘smart city’
Jathan Sadowski explains techno-political trends of exclusion and enforcement in our cities, and how to overcome this new type of digital oppression
Why I’m standing with pregnant women and resisting NHS passport checks
Dr Joanna Dobbin says the government is making migrant women afraid to seek healthcare, increasing their chances of complications or even death
‘Committees in Defence of the Referendum’: update from Catalonia
Ignasi Bernat and David Whyte on developments as the Catalan people resist the Spanish state's crackdown on their independence referendum
The rights and safety of LGBTQ+ people are not guaranteed – we must continue to fight for them
Kennedy Walker looks at the growth in hate attacks at a time when the Tory government is being propped up by homophobes