May 2026’s Senedd election confirmed a major shift in Welsh politics. Reform UK, which secured just 1–2 per cent of the vote at the previous election, emerged as a significant electoral force in Wales, while Plaid Cymru achieved perhaps the strongest result in its history.

A notable feature of the result was the simultaneous rise of these parties alongside their different electoral bases. Reform drew support from the Conservatives while also mobilising some who did not vote in the 2024 general election. Plaid, meanwhile, attracted jaded Labour voters alongside younger and more progressive cohorts. It also benefitted from tactical voting among those who had sought to prevent a Reform breakthrough. In Labour heartlands such as Blaenau Gwent, where Labour representation was lost entirely, Plaid was often better placed than the Greens to consolidate progressive support, as voters recalibrated their choices in a more unpredictable political landscape. 

These patterns sat alongside underlying identity differences, with Plaid support more strongly associated with Welsh identity and Reform more prevalent among those identifying as English or more British than Welsh. Together, these shifts reflected a more fragmented and fluid political landscape, where dissatisfaction with the status quo was being channelled in different directions. This followed a long period of Labour government in Wales, now combined with Labour in power at UK level. As a result, judgements about how government is performing were closely tied to Labour itself rather than individual policies.

Plaid vs Reform

Plaid Cymru is widely understood to offer a distinct progressive vision of Wales, grounded in the belief that devolution can deliver a different kind of politics. While it retains a stable core vote, its current strength reflects a broader consolidation of progressive support. Some of this comes from Labour voters experiencing disenchantment and some from new voters. 

In some areas, Plaid also benefited from tactical voting by those seeking to block Reform gains, reflecting how its position within the electoral landscape has shifted as Labour support fragments and voters redistribute across alternatives. This can be understood as Plaid’s consolidation as the principal left-of-centre nationalist alternative in Wales, in a political field now shaped as much by Reform’s rise as by Labour’s decline.

Dissatisfaction with Welsh Labour is not flowing in a single political direction

Reform and Plaid are not drawing from the same pool of voters. Reform mobilises grievances among those who are more sceptical of both devolved and UK-level institutions. Plaid, by contrast, attracts voters who see value in devolved politics but want it to work differently. This means Plaid does not fully connect with the mix of cynicism and disengagement Reform taps into, while also being less exposed to the pressures of policy repositioning that increasingly shape Labour’s electoral challenges.

The emergence of Reform confirms that right-wing populism is now a durable feature of Welsh politics. The strong Leave vote in the 2016 EU referendum, alongside earlier support for UKIP, showed that these currents are neither new nor temporary. To understand why Reform is resonating, it is necessary to look beyond formal politics and into the everyday spaces where frustrations take shape, in conversations, communities and online groups rooted in work, travel and access to services.

Everyday experience

In a North Wales traffic incidents social media group I recently joined, posts about road accidents and delays quickly turn into complaints about 20mph speed limits, road conditions and electric vehicles. What begins as a practical discussion becomes a wider commentary on government performance and perceived overreach. Here, politics is grounded in movement, in how people get from A to B, and what gets in their way. 

These discussions are sometimes dismissed as reflecting an older demographic, but they are better understood as places where political attitudes are formed through everyday experience. Issues such as NHS waiting times, the cost of living, net zero or transport policy are not encountered as abstract debates. They are lived day to day, shaping perceptions of fairness, competence and responsiveness. Just as importantly, these experiences are interpreted through wider narratives, and the media environment plays a major role in giving them political meaning.

Reform’s messaging works because it connects dispersed grievances into a broader narrative about state overreach, unfairness and authority. Its emphasis on tax, NHS waiting times and policies such as Wales’ ‘nation of sanctuary’ weaves different grievances together into a single recognisable narrative. Put simply, it turns everyday frustration into a clear political message. The left’s response to this is not just about rebutting policy claims. It means recognising that political attitudes are shaped as much by how policies are experienced as by what they are intended to achieve.

Immigration adds a further layer. While immigration policy is determined at UK level, it still shapes political debate in Wales. It remains the clearest dividing line between Reform and the other parties and is often linked to concerns about public services and spending. This suggests that the political power of views on immigration in Wales may be underestimated in how they are interpreted within public debate.

Welsh politics is increasingly shaped by how devolved government is felt in everyday life

Defending devolution

The election result suggests that dissatisfaction with Welsh Labour is no longer flowing in a single political direction, but is instead being split between competing populist, nationalist and progressive responses to devolved governance. 

What this also points to is a broader shift since devolution. Welsh politics is still shaped by identity and institutions, but increasingly also by how devolved government is felt in everyday life. This makes devolved governance more visible in Wales than previously, but also more open to challenge. 

Defending devolution therefore points to the importance of demonstrating how decisions made in government translate into material improvements in daily life. If Reform’s growth reflects dissatisfaction with how government is felt day-to-day, then the response should not only challenge its narratives, but understand how these experiences are translated into political meaning.