Alongside the horrors unfolding on the ground, the US-Israeli war on Iran has throttled global energy trade, causing economic shocks the world over. Oil and gas prices have skyrocketed. Ripple effects are starting to filter through to different sectors, with people already struggling as they have to foot even higher prices.

Oil and gas giants, big banks, agricultural input industries and defence companies are set to make record profits. In recent crises, like those triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and war in Ukraine, the wealthiest households and the super-rich amassed even greater fortunes to the tune of hundreds of billions of pounds, while millions were unable to afford the basics. Naomi Klein described processes similar to these as ‘disaster capitalism’, which bears out in the data: billionaire wealth has increased by 81 per cent since 2020, the start of the decade of chaos, while the top five oil and gas companies made $102 billion in profits in 2024 alone.

In addition, substantial amounts of money are being wagered and made on prediction market platforms like Polymarket. This is a new finance arena in which people are able to effectively bet cryptocurrency on world events like elections and weather records, but also controversially on events like military strikes. The accuracy of some bets have led to accusations of insider trading

Though officially accessible to anyone with an internet connection and cryptocurrency, prediction markets look like yet another sphere for self-enrichment by the rich and powerful. This sense is reinforced by suspiciously timed ‘bets’ on the United States’ abduction of Nicolas Maduro as well as precise timings on the military strikes on Iran – both of which have led to sizable payouts to individuals who may have had access to non-public or classified information.

Cashing in on crisis

In the UK, polluting fossil fuel firms extracting oil and gas from the North Sea (and across the world) are set to see bumper profits in 2026 as a result of higher international prices. This is in large part because production costs don’t rise at the same rate, often staying relatively unchanged, while the cost to the buyer increases sharply, boosting profit margins. Meanwhile investors and shareholders have seen valuations of energy firms jump up. The market value – or ‘market capitalisation’ – of the top North Sea oil and gas firms increased by £73 billion at the start of March 2026.

Large increases in stock prices will provide a major windfall for the wealthy asset-owning classes who utilise beneficial tax rates on the gains they realise from assets like stocks and shares. This is because gains on assets are taxed under capital gains taxes, which are set at a lower rate than income tax, which is levied on income from employment, pensions, etc. Proponents claim this arrangement encourages speculation and rewards economic risk taking. In practice, it simply helps the already wealthy increase their fortunes.

With energy prices rising, there will be a direct and significant impact on production and cost for several sectors. Agricultural inputs, pharmaceuticals and fuel like petrol and diesel all rely on different petrochemical products derived from oil and gas. For instance, up to 99 per cent of raw materials used as a starting point in the manufacture of medicines are derived from petrochemicals. Therefore, reduced supply and higher purchasing costs will have an impact across the supply chain.

Borrowers pay, banks profit

As a result of price spikes, central banks have either held or increased interest rates in an attempt to constrain inflation. This will determine an extra large payday for banks who are putting up mortgage rates and look set to cash in on higher borrowing costs for governments. Nearly all mortgage providers have enacted significant increases to their borrowing products, adding roughly £800 to the yearly cost of a new mortgage, which will only increase as interest rates rise. While these prices rise for mortgage-holders, and renters pay higher rents as landlords pass on costs, UK lenders will be making enormous sums. UK banks made profits of almost £1 billion a week in 2025, a year which saw average interest rates having fallen from the highs of 2023 and 2024.

Of course, it wouldn’t be a war if arms manufacturers weren’t making bank. The Iran war is another catalyst for rapid EU and NATO re-armament, and therefore a bonanza for defence companies like BAE Systems or Lockheed Martin. Arms manufacturers have reported multiple years of increased revenues and profits from the permanent state of increased hostility. NATO countries in particular had already pledged to increase core defence spending from an average of 2 per cent of GDP to 3.5 per cent by 2035, with the recent war being used to fast-track spending. Proposals for excess profits taxes on the sector are estimated to raise billions in times of war, as arms companies inflate their prices to capitalise on increased demand.

Parliament can either tax crisis windfalls and protect households or preside over yet another upward transfer of wealth

A choice over who pays

Calls for excess profits taxes to be levied on sectors profiteering from the war on Iran and to support those struggling with the cost of living are growing, ranging from economists to EU finance ministers and civil society organisations. In the UK they’ve been spearheaded by Tax Justice UK, with 40 campaigning groups, think tanks and leading trade unions like the PCS and NEU backing the intervention. However, this is contrasted with other unions calling for greater spending on defence under the banner of good jobs and economic growth, amid a wider clamour for more spending on defence. Politicians across parliament have been vocally advocating cuts to the social security budget, pitting spending on our collective safety net against military spending.

Clearly, the impacts of the war on Iran will live long into the future across the world. The economic fallout is unlikely to dissipate before causing massive levels of misery, while corporations and the super-rich get even richer. Governments can and must use the powers available to them, like excess profits levies, rather than facilitating yet another transfer of wealth upward through the economy.